With 18,355 career rushing yards, Dallas Cowboys Hall of Fame running back Emmitt Smith holds the top spot on the NFL all-time rushing leaders chart.
On Oct. 27, 2002, Smith broke Walter Payton’s NFL career rushing record of 16,726 yards with an eleven-yard scramble in the fourth quarter against the Seattle Seahawks. More than 18 years later, the record still stands.. Since the turn of the 21st century, the NFL has become a pass-first league, with many teams abandoning the run or utilizing a dual threat backfield. This approach gives running backs fewer touches and therefore, prevents them from accumulating yards over the course of their career.. However, there are four active running backs — two on the tail end of their careers and two just hitting their stride — that could challenge Smith for the top spot. Will anyone of these players be able to “Catch 22”? Let’s find out.
Frank Gore
Journeyman Frank Gore currently holds the No. 3 spot on the NFL all-time rushing leaders list. At 37 years old, the New York Jets running back is in his 16th NFL season and trails Smith by 2,462 yards with three games left in the 2020 regular season.
Looking at his career averages, Gore could break the all-time rushing record late in the 2022 NFL season.. The question is this: will he end up playing that long? Does he have two more years left in those legs? If so, will he be able to sustain his average throughout both seasons? Literally, only time will tell.
Adrian Peterson
At 34 years old, Detroit Lions running back Adrian Peterson still looks like he can run with the best of them. In fact, just two years ago he said he wanted to play into his 40s. If his wish holds true, he could very well surpass Smith’s milestone.
Sitting at No. 5 on the all-time rushing list with 14,724 yards, Peterson would need just 44 games to take over the top spot. However, there’s more to the story.. Now in his 14th season, Peterson averaged just under 100 yards per game during his first nine seasons. Since then, he’s only averaged a tick above 54 yards per game. Unless he picks up the pace, Peterson wouldn’t eclipse Smith until early in the 2024 season.. It’s certainly doable, but a lot of things have to go right. He’ll need to receive the majority of touches in the backfield and remain healthy — something he’s struggled to do.
Ezekiel Elliott
While Dallas Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliot has amassed 6,237 rushing yards in 67 career games, NFL teams no longer use their running backs the way they did when Smith, Gore, and Peterson were in their prime.
At just 25 years old, Elliot would need to maintain his 91.2 yards per game average in order to break Smith’s record by the 2028 NFL season. This would put Elliot at 33 years old, a year younger than Peterson is currently.. While this doesn’t seem like an impossible task, NFL running backs are known to gradually regress once they hit their late 20s. And even though his yards per game average is 10 yards better than Smith’s, Elliot’s longevity may be his inevitable downfall.
Derrick Henry
Sitting roughly 1,000 yards below Elliot is Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry. While the former Alabama wrecking ball ran for 1,234 yards in his first two seasons, he doubled that amount over his next 31 games. Currently the best back in the NFL right now, Henry’s future looks promising.
But here’s the catch. At his current rate, Henry would need at least a full decade to pass Smith on the NFL all-time rushing leaders list. At 26 years old, he would be on the back end of 30 when Smith’s record was in sight.. With the way Henry runs the ball, he’ll have a difficult time maintaining such an aggressive clip. It’s certainly possible, but a lot of things would have to go right for him to be in position to overtake one of the greatest running backs in NFL history.